A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
